The bike industry just dodged a 50% steel tariff — but Chinese bikes still face 86% duties, new Section 301 investigations are targeting Taiwan and Vietnam, and the next wave of price pressure could arrive by late 2026. Here's what it means for brands, retailers, and buyers right now.
The bike industry just won a battle. Whether it wins the war is a different question entirely.
On April 3, the White House announced that bicycles, e-bikes, and frames would not be added to the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff list — a proposal that would have slapped a 50% surcharge on the metal content of every bike imported into the United States. The industry mobilized hard: PeopleForBikes coordinated over 1,300 industry comments in opposition, more than any other sector affected by the proposal, and lobbied senior Commerce Department staff directly. It worked. The administration backed down.
Celebrate for a moment. Then read the fine print.
**The Tariffs That Didn't Go Away**
The Section 232 victory was real, but it was narrow. What it did not do is touch the much larger tariff burden that has been reshaping the bike industry for the past two years.
Chinese-made bicycles currently face an 86% tariff on entry into the United States. E-bikes from China carry a 75% tariff. These are not new — they are the accumulated result of Section 301 tariffs layered on top of earlier trade actions, and they have been in place long enough that most brands have already restructured their supply chains around them. The brands that could move production to Taiwan, Vietnam, or Cambodia largely did so years ago.
But here is the problem: the administration is now investigating those countries too.
In March, the U.S. Trade Representative launched new Section 301 investigations targeting industrial overcapacity and government subsidies across a list of countries that reads like a who's-who of global bicycle manufacturing: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, and Mexico. The investigations are broad and do not yet identify specific product categories or tariff rates. A public comment period closed April 15; a live hearing is scheduled for May 5. Final tariff determinations are unlikely before late 2026 at the earliest — but the direction of travel is clear.
**Taiwan Is the Exposed Flank**
For the performance bike industry, Taiwan is the critical vulnerability. Giant, Merida, and a constellation of contract manufacturers produce the majority of the world's mid-to-high-end road and gravel bikes in Taichung. SRAM, Shimano, and most major component brands have significant Taiwanese manufacturing. The current tariff rate on Taiwanese bikes is modest compared to China — but if new Section 301 duties land on Taiwan, the entire supply chain gets repriced simultaneously.
Bike-EU reported this week that Taiwan's bicycle industry is still waiting for the post-COVID inventory correction to fully clear, with the country sitting at the beginning of the supply chain and therefore absorbing shocks last. A new round of US tariffs on Taiwanese goods would arrive at the worst possible moment — into a market that is already soft, already discounting, and already carrying too much inventory.
Giant reported a 42% decline in profits last year. Canyon cut 320 jobs. Trek has been running red for 18 months. These companies are not positioned to absorb a significant new cost shock.
**The Supreme Court Wildcard**
There is one more variable that makes this harder to forecast: the courts.
In February, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the sweeping global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, finding that the president had exceeded his authority. The ruling does not affect Section 232 or Section 301 tariffs — those have separate legal foundations — but it does mean that billions of dollars in IEEPA duties already collected are likely to be refunded to importers. US Customs and Border Protection began accepting refund requests on April 20.
For bike brands that imported heavily during the IEEPA tariff window, this is meaningful money. PeopleForBikes is advising members to file refund claims through the new CAPE automated process while also preserving their legal rights through formal protests — the refund window is time-limited and the process is not straightforward.
The IEEPA ruling also signals that the administration will pursue alternative legal pathways to impose tariffs going forward — which is precisely what the new Section 301 investigations represent.
**What This Means for Prices**
The honest answer is: it depends on which brands you're buying from and where they make their bikes.
For the next six to twelve months, the Section 232 victory means that the immediate threat of a 50% surcharge on aluminum-frame bikes has been removed. The existing tariff structure — high on China, moderate on Taiwan and Southeast Asia — remains in place. Brands that moved production out of China years ago are largely insulated from the current regime.
The risk window is late 2026 and into 2027, when the new Section 301 investigations could produce fresh duties on Taiwan and Vietnam. If that happens, the brands most exposed are the ones that rely heavily on Taiwanese contract manufacturing for their mid-range and upper-mid-range lines — which is most of the major players.
The silver lining for buyers right now is that the inventory glut is still working in your favor. Brands are discounting to move stock, and the tariff threat that would have forced immediate price increases has been pushed back. If you have been waiting to buy a new bike, the window between now and whenever the Section 301 process concludes is probably the best pricing environment you will see for a while.
**The Bigger Picture**
What the past two years have demonstrated is that the bike industry, when it organizes, can move policy. The 1,300 comments that killed the Section 232 inclusion request were not an accident — they were the result of a coordinated advocacy campaign that treated trade policy as a business-critical issue rather than a background concern.
The Section 301 investigations require the same response. The public comment period is open now. If you are a brand, retailer, or manufacturer with exposure to Taiwanese or Vietnamese supply chains, the time to engage is before the hearing on May 5 — not after the tariff rates are announced.
The war is not over. It has just moved to a new front.