The 109th edition of the Corsa Rosa starts today in Bulgaria — yes, Bulgaria — and ends 23 days and 3,500 kilometres later in Rome. In between, there are 21 stages, one 40-kilometre time trial, six mountain stages, and a field that is simultaneously the most predictable and most dangerous in recent Giro memory.
Predictable because Jonas Vingegaard is the overwhelming favourite and everyone knows it. Dangerous because the Giro has a long, proud tradition of eating Tour de France favourites alive.
THE RACE STARTS WHERE YOU'D LEAST EXPECT
Stage 1 rolls out of Nessebar on Bulgaria's Black Sea coast — the latest in a series of Giro grand départs designed to put a country on Italian television. Albania got the treatment last year. Bulgaria gets it this year. The opening three stages are essentially a sprint warm-up before the convoy transfers to Italy for the real race. Stage 7 to Blockhaus — 246 kilometres with 4,500 metres of climbing to an 18km summit finish at 8% — is when the Giro actually begins.
The route is shorter than recent editions (average stage length of 165km, down from 179km in 2025) but packs the same vertical gain into fewer kilometres. The final week is stacked: Stage 14 to Pila in the Alps, Stage 16's mini-mountain sprint to Cari in Switzerland, and the tappone on Stage 19 through the Dolomites with 4,800 metres of climbing including the Giau via its harder side. Only one time trial — 40 kilometres in Viareggio on Stage 10 — which will be the single biggest differentiator between the GC contenders.
THE FAVOURITE WHO HAS NEVER RACED THE GIRO
Jonas Vingegaard has won the Tour de France twice and the Vuelta a España once. He has never raced the Giro d'Italia. That résumé makes him the clear favourite and the biggest unknown simultaneously.
The Dane arrives in Bulgaria in the best form of his life. He has Sepp Kuss, Wilco Kelderman, and Victor Campenaerts in support — a strong team, though notably not the full Tour de France squad. Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson, and Christophe Laporte are being saved for July. Visma-Lease a Bike is treating this as a Giro-Tour double attempt, which means Vingegaard will be racing conservatively, not the way Pogačar obliterated the field in 2024.
That restraint is both his biggest strength and his biggest vulnerability. The Giro rewards aggression. Riders who wait get ambushed.
THE ITALIAN HOPE
Giulio Pellizzari is 22 years old, rides for Red Bull, and carries the weight of an entire nation's cycling ambitions on his shoulders. Italy has not won its own race since Vincenzo Nibali in 2016, and the Italian media has already anointed Pellizzari as the next Shark of Messina. That is a lot of pressure for a rider who has never finished a grand tour podium.
But the form is real. Third at Tirreno-Adriatico. Winner of the Tour of the Alps — the traditional Giro tune-up race. He has Aleksander Vlasov and former Giro winner Jai Hindley as lieutenants. Vingegaard will rate him as Rival No. 1.
THE COMEBACK KID
Egan Bernal won the Giro in 2021. Then he broke his spine on a training ride in January 2022 and spent the better part of two years learning to walk again. He has never fully returned to the rider who won two grand tours before the age of 25 — but he is the best he has been since the crash, and at this Giro, that might be enough.
Bernal hinted at his revival at last year's Giro and Vuelta. He has Thymen Arensman in support. On a route with limited time trial kilometres, his deficit against the clock is manageable. If the race explodes on Stage 19 in the Dolomites, do not be surprised to see the Colombian in the mix.
THE UAE WILDCARD
Tadej Pogačar is at the Tour. Isaac del Toro is injured. João Almeida is sick. UAE Emirates-XRG arrives at the Giro as the most depleted version of the sport's dominant team in years. What they do have is Adam Yates — a veteran climber who has spent the last three years as Pogačar's most trusted lieutenant — and Jay Vine, one of the best pure climbers in the peloton.
Yates has not raced a grand tour for himself since leaving Ineos in 2022. The Giro is his chance to prove he is more than a domestique. UAE's team management would relish the irony if it is Pogačar's long-time helper who wins the race the Slovenian is skipping.
THE DARK HORSE
Felix Gall. The Austrian climber from Decathlon has a gift for quietly infiltrating the top of GC without anyone noticing until it is too late. He has the capacity to hang with Vingegaard in the Alps, he will limit his losses in the time trial, and he has Matthew Riccitello — one of the most exciting young American climbers in the peloton — for company. If the race comes down to a war of attrition in the third week, Gall is the name to remember.
THE STAGES THAT WILL DECIDE EVERYTHING
Stage 7 (May 15) — Blockhaus: The first real GC test. 18km at 8%, comparable to Mont Ventoux in terms of statistics. This is where the race's first hierarchy gets established.
Stage 10 TT (May 19) — Viareggio: The only time trial. 40 kilometres, pan-flat. Expect significant time gaps. Vingegaard should build a cushion here that the pure climbers cannot fully close.
Stage 14 (May 23) — Pila: The first Alpine summit finish. 17km at 7%, steady and relentless. Vingegaard's kind of climb.
Stage 16 (May 26) — Cari, Switzerland: A mini mountain sprint stage. 113km, 3,000m of gain, all on pristine Swiss tarmac. The steep south-facing finish has caught riders out before.
Stage 19 (May 29) — Dolomites tappone: The race decider. 4,800m of climbing, the Giau via its harder side (the Cima Coppi high point of 2026), and a final climb of 5km at 10%. If anyone is going to overturn the GC, this is where it happens.
THE VERDICT
Vingegaard wins this race if the Giro behaves like a normal grand tour. He is the best climber in the field, he has the best team, and the route suits him. The 40km time trial is long enough to build a cushion that even Pellizzari cannot close on the climbs.
But the Giro never behaves like a normal grand tour. That is the entire point. The roads are worse, the weather is more unpredictable, the tactics are more chaotic, and the race has a long history of humbling riders who arrive as prohibitive favourites. Vingegaard has never experienced the Giro's particular brand of cruelty.
Pick Vingegaard to win. But watch Pellizzari on Stage 7. If the Italian attacks on Blockhaus and Vingegaard has to chase, the race gets very interesting very quickly.
Watch: Stage 7 (Blockhaus, May 15), Stage 14 (Pila, May 23), Stage 19 (Dolomites tappone, May 29). All stages finish around 5:15pm CEST. US viewers can watch on Max.